- He’s British & not playing the baddie.
- It’s a war film. They don’t tend to do that well. I know Shindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan won Oscars. It’s not that common for The Academy to give acting honours to war films.
- He’s playing a gay character who’s the hero. I know Tom Hanks won for Philadelphia, but his character was dying from AIDS. He, and his character, are American.
- The story isn’t that well known in America as it is in the UK. You have to remember that America won the war all by itself! It did have a little help from the British if war films are to be believed, U-571 anyone?
- It’s a film about science and computers. People may get bored with the science instead of the performances
I would love to be proved wrong. I just have the feeling that he will lose out to a more Hollywood friendly film. Just have a look at who has won the Oscar for a film and who they were against. I’m sure you will see some on the list to make you go Why did X win as Y was a lot better in Z!. He does have a better chance of winning a BAFTA for the role as that “academy” tends to go towards Brits.
Even with all of this, I may put a small bet on Benedict winning. Who knows, I maybe proved wrong. Currently, his odds are 4/1 to win the Oscar even if names haven’t even been announced yet.